Time Anchor: July 24 US market close → July 27 Beijing morning release. Covers market movements from last Friday to Sunday (July 24–26). COMEX and London spot are anchored to July 24 close.
Comprehensive Report
On Friday, July 24 (ET), spot gold closed at $4,051.51/oz after a volatile week, up 0.08% on the day, with a weekly gain of +1.43%. Prices experienced wild swings during the week: Monday fell to a weekly low of $3,982.32 before finding buying support, Wednesday rebounded to a weekly high of $4,165.71, Thursday initial jobless claims plummeted to 187,000 (lowest since 1969) triggering a pullback, and Friday stabilized amid lower oil prices and a slight retreat in Treasury yields. Spot silver closed Friday at $58.16 (+0.87%).
Market Review: Gold Tested 4,000 Mark Twice in a Week, Two-way Volatility Increased
Monday (July 20): Gold opened at $4,015.83 and remained under pressure as the market continued to digest rising energy costs, US-Iran tensions, and Fed tightening expectations. Prices fell to a weekly low of $3,982.32, but buyers re-entered near the $4,000 level.
Tuesday to Wednesday: As US Treasury yields retreated from recent highs and the dollar lost upward momentum, gold prices recovered. Before noon on Wednesday, gold hit a weekly high of $4,165.71, briefly breaking above the $4,100 mark.
Thursday: Initial jobless claims plunged to 187,000 (below the expected 205,000, with the prior revised up to 209,000), reinforcing expectations of labor market resilience. The dollar strengthened and Treasury yields rebounded, pushing gold back below 4,100. The ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25%, noting the lingering impact of energy price shocks.
Friday: Crude oil prices retreated from Thursday's highs – Brent settled at $96.78/barrel (after briefly breaking above $102), and WTI closed at $89.31/barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 4.678%, and the dollar index DXY held steady at 101.47. Gold consolidated in the 4,020–4,083 range before closing near 4,052, but failed to reclaim 4,100.
Friday's US stock performance was mixed: The Dow rose 0.5% to 51,947.25, the S&P 500 edged up 0.1% to 7,411.98, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6% to 24,975.82. European markets generally closed higher, with the STOXX Europe 600 gaining 0.82% to 644.51.
Strait of Hormuz: Tensions Persist but Waterway Open, Oil Prices Retreat from Highs
The Strait of Hormuz situation is assessed as 'open but with highly tense passage conditions.' The US-Iran standoff over control of the waterway continues, and Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers in the Red Sea have further expanded the shipping risk map. Brent crude briefly broke $102 this week but fell back to $96.78 on Friday, partly due to rumors of peace talks.
For gold, geopolitical risks provide safe-haven support, but high oil prices maintain upward pressure on inflation expectations, boosting Treasury yields and weighing on non-yielding gold – the interest rate expectation pressure from rising oil prices repeatedly overshadowed safe-haven buying this week.
China June Gold Imports Hit 173 Tons, a Two-Year High, as Low Prices Spur Demand
The latest customs data shows that China's gold imports in June were approximately 173 tons, the highest since March 2024, rising for the third consecutive month and far exceeding May's 163 tons. The international gold price has fallen about 25% from its early-year highs, coupled with a stronger yuan, prompting investors to buy on dips. Commercial banks increased purchases using import quotas ahead of the new permit system in June to meet physical demand for retail gold bars and gold accumulation plans. Cumulative imports for January–May were about 692 tons, up 76% year-on-year.
BlackRock: Gold Still Deserves a Modest Allocation in Portfolios
Russ Koesterich, Portfolio Manager for Global Asset Allocation at BlackRock, noted in a recent report that while gold has fallen about 25% from its all-time high earlier this year and turned negative for the year at roughly -7%, the structural reasons for holding gold remain intact. He analyzed that the main drivers of the decline are a stronger dollar (DXY up over 6% since its January low) and rising real interest rates (the 10-year real yield in the TIPS market rose from 1.65% to 2.20%).
"Debt and deficits are at historical highs, currency debasement remains a long-term risk, and geopolitics haven't become more stable – all of this supports maintaining a modest gold allocation in portfolios," Koesterich said.
This Week's Key Events (July 27 – August 1)
- Tuesday, July 28: US July Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board, 10:00 ET)
- Wednesday, July 29: Fed FOMC Interest Rate Decision (14:00 ET) + Warsh Press Conference (14:30 ET) – Market expectations for rates unchanged, but rate hike risk not fully eliminated
- Thursday, July 30: Bank of England Rate Decision + US Q2 GDP Advance (8:30 ET) + Initial Jobless Claims + Bank of Japan Rate Decision
- Friday, July 31: US June PCE Inflation (Fed's preferred gauge, 8:30 ET) + July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final
Institutional Views at a Glance
The colors and directions are editorial summaries by this publication based on the public views mentioned above and do not represent official investment ratings of the relevant institutions.
| Institution/Person | View | Market Implication (Summarized by This Report) |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock Koesterich | Structural reasons still support holding gold, recommends maintaining modest allocation | 🟢 Medium to long-term bullish |
| CPM Group | Issued short-term buy recommendation with target price $4,220; may resume decline after August | 🟢 Short-term bullish |
| FxPro Kuptsikevich | Mainly bearish targeting 3,300–3,500 range, but bulls' resilience cannot be ignored | 🔴 Medium to long-term bearish |
| Forex.com Stanley | 4,000 support remains effective, Warsh may be less hawkish than market expects | 🟢 Short-term bullish |
| SIA Wealth Cieszynski | Consolidation in 3,960–4,170 range, needs months to digest after summer volatility | 🟡 Neutral |
| Adrian Day Asset Management | Gold hasn't fallen under negative factors, a 'bullish signal'; cautiously optimistic | 🟢 Cautiously bullish |
| Kitco Weekly Survey (Wall Street) | 22% bullish, 39% bearish, 39% neutral | 🔴 Bearish bias |
| Kitco Weekly Survey (Retail) | 59% bullish, 19% bearish, 22% neutral | 🟢 Bullish bias |
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Kitco News, BlackRock (Koesterich note), CPM Group, FxPro, Forex.com, SIA Wealth Management, Adrian Day Asset Management, Federal Reserve, ECB, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, World Gold Council, Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX). Overseas prices are anchored to COMEX and LBMA closes.
Disclaimer: This material is provided by Delta Horizon Capital（德合资本） for institutional investor reference only and does not constitute any express or implied investment advice, offer, or solicitation. The data and information contained in this report are derived from public market channels. Delta Horizon Capital（德合资本） makes no guarantees as to their accuracy or completeness. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market risk exists, and investment requires caution.
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