July 23, 2026
Gold Falls Below 4,050, Crude Breaks Through $100 Dampening Safe-Haven Demand, Jobs Data Bolsters Hawkish Expectations | Morning Report for July 24, 2026
Comprehensive Report
On July 23, spot gold fell significantly, completely reversing the gains of the previous two days. As of the Kitco PM Report publication, spot gold was at $4,047.80/oz, down 1.98% on the day, with an intraday range of $4,039.40-$4,141.70. Silver fell even more, closing at $57.64 (-3.46%). The decline was driven by multiple factors: US initial jobless claims fell to 187,000 (lowest since 1969), the ECB kept rates unchanged but emphasized energy inflation risks, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to around 4.7%, and the US dollar index strengthened. At the same time, Brent crude broke above $100/barrel, and the attack on oil tankers in the Red Sea expanded shipping risks. However, the surge in oil prices raised inflation expectations and interest rate expectations, which instead suppressed non-yielding gold. Geopolitical safe-haven demand was completely offset by macro rate pressure.
I. Market Review: Safe Haven Loses Luster, Dual Pressure from Rates and Crude Oil
During the Asian session, spot gold fell from its intraday high of $4,141.70. The Kitco AM Report showed it had fallen to $4,066.82 (-1.52%) before the North American open. After the ECB rate decision and jobless claims data, gold accelerated its decline, hitting an intraday low of $4,039.40, and rebounded slightly in late trading but still closed near the low. Silver's intraday range was $57.21-$60.95, and after breaking below the $60 level it failed to recover.
The external market showed a typical pattern of "oil rallying, bonds under pressure, stocks falling." The S&P 500 fell 90.66 points (-1.2%) to 7,408.30, the Nasdaq fell 553.21 points (-2.2%) to 25,137.69, and the Dow fell 506.93 points (-1.0%) to 51,711.65. European stocks also declined, with the STOXX Europe 600 falling 7.66 points (-1.18%) to 639.27. Nymex WTI crude oil was at $92.00/barrel, and Brent crude stood above $100.
In rates, the US 10-year Treasury yield traded around 4.7%, and the dollar index DXY strengthened. The positive impact of softer June CPI and PPI had been digested. Initial jobless claims plunged 22,000 to 187,000, the lowest since September 1969. The market's expectation that the Fed will hold steady next week remained unchanged, but the risk of a rate hike later this year rose again. The ECB kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25%, while emphasizing that the impact of the energy shock on inflation has not yet fully materialized, with a hawkish tone.
On the technical side, the Kitco PM Report confirmed that spot gold bulls have lost short-term momentum. Gold broke below the 100-period moving average ($4,083) and failed to break the downtrend line resistance ($4,148). The next upside target for bulls is to return to $4,148, and after a sustained break, look for $4,200 and $4,246. The short-term downside target for bears is to break below $4,039.40, with support below at $4,020 and $3,957. For silver, after losing the $60 level, it pulled back to near the 50-period moving average ($58.50), with initial support at $58.73.
II. Hormuz and Crude Oil: Brent Breaks Above 100, Shipping Risks Spread to Red Sea
The Strait of Hormuz transit status is still described as "open but with extremely high pressure," with continued clashes between the US and Iran over control of the strait. US Central Command confirmed that the latest strikes were aimed at weakening Iran's ability to threaten civilian vessels. Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, expanding the shipping risk map from Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising questions about Saudi and Gulf states' rerouting plans. Brent crude broke above $100/barrel on the day, with WTI rising to $92. For gold, the dual effect of rising oil prices persists: on one hand, it boosts safe-haven demand, on the other hand, it pushes up inflation expectations and rate expectations, with the latter dominating gold price action on the day.
III. Macro and Central Banks: ECB Holds Steady, Jobless Claims Hit 57-Year Low
At its July meeting, the European Central Bank kept its three key rates unchanged, with the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remaining at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%, respectively. The statement noted that energy prices are highly volatile and uncertain, and the full impact of inflation has not yet materialized. The Governing Council committed to closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the energy shock. The market interpreted this as a hawkish stance, with the euro weakening after the decision and the dollar index gaining support.
US Department of Labor data showed that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 were 187,000, below the market expectation of 212,000, with the prior week revised up from 208,000 to 209,000. The four-week moving average fell to 207,500, and continuing claims at 1,796,000 also came in below expectations. The strong labor data reinforced expectations that the Fed will maintain its tightening stance.
Natixis economists Christopher Hodge and Selin Aker noted in a FOMC preview report that the soft June CPI and PPI data bought the Fed some time, but the decline in the labor force participation rate was mainly driven by older workers exiting, and the emergence of prime-age workers (25-54) leaving the workforce in June is a concern. Natixis expects the July FOMC to keep rates unchanged, but the vote may not be unanimous, with hawkish members like Logan potentially dissenting. After a prolonged pause, if inflation does not decline as expected, Waters may face pressure to hike. The institution sees tariffs and energy prices as upside risks to inflation.
IV. Central Bank Gold Reserves Diverge: Azerbaijan Halts Gold Sales, Pakistan Reserves Decline
The Iran war continues to impact sovereign gold holdings. The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) announced a suspension of gold sales in the second quarter of 2026, with gold reserves at 178.1 tons as of the end of June, accounting for 31.4% of the portfolio. SOFAZ reported that the US-Iran conflict led to high volatility in global financial and energy markets, with gold making a negative contribution to net asset value in the second quarter.
Pakistan's gold reserves fell from $9.47 billion in May to $8.39 billion in June, down 11.4% month-on-month, but still up 22.6% year-on-year. Total reserves (including forwards and swaps) rose to $18.5 billion. Data from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) showed that as of early July, Russia's gold reserves stood at 73.4 million ounces (approximately 2,282 tonnes), valued at $299 billion, down 43.5 tonnes since the beginning of the year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. Earlier in March, the Central Bank of Turkey also significantly reduced its gold holdings. These examples show that high oil prices and fiscal pressures are forcing some emerging market central banks to sell gold, in stark contrast to the continued buying by Asian central banks (China, Poland).
Chris Gaffney, President of Global Markets at EverBank, said that retail investors are currently more profit-taking than panic selling, and long-term confidence in gold remains unchanged. He sees solid support from central banks, but retail investors are waiting for cheaper prices or more clear signals from the Fed.
V. Institutional Views Quick Take
| Institution/Person | Key View | Tendency |
|---|---|---|
| EverBank Gaffney | Retail investors are profit-taking rather than panicking, long-term confidence remains; central bank support is solid, but rate hike expectations suppress short-term demand | 🟡 Short-term neutral / 🟢 Medium-to-long-term bullish |
| Natixis Hodge/Aker | July FOMC likely to hold steady, but rate hike risk later this year remains; decline in labor force participation is concerning; tariffs and energy are upside risks to inflation | 🟡 Neutral |
| John Paulson | Gold still in early stage of long-term bull market, supported by central bank buying and de-dollarization; bullish on mining stocks, especially junior explorers | 🟢 Strongly bullish medium-to-long term |
| Freeport-McMoRan | Despite sharp quarterly declines in gold prices, Q2 average selling price $4,520/oz, +37% YoY; miner cash flow remains strong | 🟢 Strong earnings resilience for miners |
| European Central Bank (ECB) | Kept rates unchanged, emphasized energy inflation risks not fully materialized, refused to give dovish guidance | 🔴 Hawkish (monetary policy stance) |
| Kitco PM Report (Technical) | Bulls lost short-term momentum, broke below 100-period MA and trendline; 4,039 key support, if lost look at 4,020 and 3,957 | 🔴 Bearish short-term |
| Azerbaijan SOFAZ | Suspended gold sales in Q2, gold reserves account for 31.4%; war led to high volatility, negative contribution from gold in Q2 | 🟡 Neutral on supply side |
| Central Bank of Russia (CBR) | Sold cumulative 43.5 tonnes in H1, declining for 6 consecutive months; used to supplement budget deficit | 🔴 Supply side pressure |
VI. HKEX GDU: Active Trading on July 22, Open Interest Increases Significantly
The HKEX Dollar Gold Futures (GDU, 1 kg 9999 fine gold, USD denominated) recorded a total volume of 7,124 lots on Wednesday, July 22, with open interest of 1,672 lots, a net increase of 294 lots from the previous day. The AUG-26 contract settled at $132.59/gram (approximately $4,124/oz), up $1.71 (+1.31%) on the day; the DEC-26 contract settled at $134.43/gram (approximately $4,182/oz), up $1.70 (+1.28%). Day session volume for the AUG-26 contract was 2,966 lots, and for DEC-26 was 3,295 lots, showing active trading. In terms of open interest, AUG-26 increased by 144 lots to 848 lots, and DEC-26 increased by 150 lots to 824 lots, indicating fund inflows.
In calendar spreads, the AUG-26/DEC-26 spread trading recorded 2,879 lots, with the spread remaining in the $1.83-$1.84/gram range, reflecting the market's continued demand for managing the medium-term term structure.
Hong Kong Exchanges currently has multiple designated market makers jointly maintaining two-way liquidity and price continuity in the dollar gold futures market. With the rise of gold pricing power in the Asian time zone and the advancement of RMB internationalization, the HKEX GDU contract is gradually becoming an important link in the global precious metals trading network.
VII. Key Events Today and Next Week
- Friday, July 24: US July Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI Preliminary (9:45 AM ET) — The market will look for signals of economic slowdown; if data falls short of expectations, it may reduce rate hike expectations and support gold prices.
- July 29 FOMC Meeting: Widely expected to hold rates unchanged; focus on the statement wording and Waters' hints on the future rate path. No dot plot will be released at this meeting, but official communication may affect market pricing.
- Hormuz Situation: Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have expanded; supply-demand dynamics may tighten further after the attack on Saudi tankers. Brent crude has already broken above $100, with shipping disruption risks persisting.
- US Stock Q2 Earnings Season: Disappointing results from large tech stocks dragged the Nasdaq down 2.2%; if earnings concerns intensify, it could trigger safe-haven flows into gold, but be wary of liquidity sell-off risks.
- US Jobless Claims Follow-up: Next week's weekly data will verify whether the 187,000 level is an outlier; continued low readings will reinforce the narrative of labor market resilience.
Disclaimer: This material is provided by Delta Horizon Capital（德合资本）for institutional investors only and does not constitute any express or implied investment advice, offer, or solicitation. The data and information contained in this report are sourced from public market channels. Delta Horizon Capital（德合资本）makes no warranties as to its accuracy or completeness. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market risks exist; investment requires caution.
Delta Horizon Capital（德合资本）is a quantitative trading institution headquartered in Hong Kong, with its technology and research and development team based in North America, focusing on quantitative trading, two-way quoting, and market liquidity provision. The company has long been deeply involved in diversified markets such as precious metals, stock index futures, foreign exchange and interest rates, energy and commodities. Relying on mature quantitative pricing models, a rigorous risk management system, and low-latency trading infrastructure, it provides stable, efficient, and flexible liquidity services to institutional clients. Core team members have a combined experience of over 30 years in international futures, options, and derivatives markets. Since 2017, the Dehe trading team has successively obtained the first batch of exchange-designated market maker qualifications from the Hong Kong Exchanges for non-ferrous metals, gold futures, A50 stock index futures, and RMB exchange rate futures, and has won multiple relevant awards from HKEX for market making and liquidity provision. Delta Horizon Capital (Hong Kong) Limited is currently listed on the Hong Kong Exchanges' liquidity provider list for Dollar Gold Futures (GDU). For more details, please visit the official website: www.deltahorizoncapital.com