July 22, 2026
Gold prices return to 4136, boosted by technical buying and safe-haven demand, Hormuz premium continues to expand | Morning Report, July 23, 2026
Comprehensive Report
On July 22, spot gold rebounded for the third consecutive trading day, driven by technical buying and safe-haven demand. Gold prices tested $4,167 in the afternoon US Eastern time, hitting a new high for the week. As of the Kitco PM Report, spot gold was at $4,136.60/oz, up 1.47% on the day, with an intraday range of $4,075.90-$4,167.00. Silver also strengthened, closing at $59.72 (+1.80%), briefly breaking through the $61 level intraday. The core driver of this rebound came from technical buying after gold broke through the triangle consolidation pattern, and safe-haven demand from continued tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—despite the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.66% and crude oil prices rising sharply, gold still recorded significant gains, indicating buying momentum is strengthening. Several market participants noted in public comments that the market's focus may be shifting from pure inflation concerns to deeper anxiety about global economic stability, a shift that could provide new structural support for gold.
I. Market Review: Breaking Triangle Consolidation, Bulls Regain Technical Advantage
In the early Asian session, spot gold found buying support near $4,075.90 and then rose steadily. According to the Kitco AM Report, before the North American market opened, spot gold had recovered to $4,125.10 (+1.19%), and silver was at $59.44 (+1.32%). After entering the European and US sessions, the uptrend extended further. The Kitco PM Report confirmed that gold prices hit an intraday high of $4,167.00 in the afternoon, before slightly pulling back to close at $4,136.60. Silver's intraday range was $58.61-$61.03, holding above the 100-period moving average (around $59.23) and continuing the breakout from the previous downtrend line.
In external markets, the day presented a clear 'polarized' pattern: oil prices surged on tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, US Treasury yields rose in tandem, and US stocks were mixed. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.63% on Tuesday to 4.66%, and the US Dollar Index DXY held near 101.00. In oil, Brent crude closed at $94.07/barrel, the highest closing price since June 8; WTI crude rose to $86.83. In US equities, the S&P 500 edged up 10.24 points (+0.1%) to 7,498.96, the Nasdaq Composite fell 146.30 points (-0.6%) to 25,690.90, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 6.06 points (-0.1%) to 52,218.58. The Canadian S&P/TSX Composite rose 116.03 points (+0.33%) to 35,485.11, led by energy and gold sectors. European markets generally closed higher, with the STOXX Europe 600 up 3.74 points (+0.58%) to 646.93, and the London FTSE 100 rose 131.06 points (+1.24%) to 10,716.97, driven by weaker UK inflation data.
In interest rate markets, market pricing maintained a 'dilemma' pattern after the latest economic data. The soft June CPI and PPI data reduced pressure for an immediate Fed rate hike; but retail sales growth of 0.2%, initial jobless claims falling to 208,000, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumping to 41.4, and consumer confidence improving to 54.4—these resilient data prevented the market from pricing a clear dovish pivot. There were no major macro data releases in the US that day, and interest rate expectations were mainly anchored by Fed communication, oil price trends, and the FOMC meeting next week. The market generally expects the July 29 meeting to keep rates unchanged, but opinions are divided on whether the September meeting will act.
On the technical front, the Kitco PM Report confirmed that spot gold bulls have regained short-term technical advantage. Gold prices broke through the triangle consolidation pattern resistance and successively stood above the 50-period moving average ($4,049) and the 100-period moving average ($4,076). The next upside target for bulls is to re-break $4,167.00; after holding steadily, look towards $4,200 and $4,278. The short-term downside target for bears is to break below $4,080, with deeper support below at $4,050 and $4,040. For silver, bulls have also regained technical advantage, with the next upside target being to break $61.03, looking towards $63.24 and $65.15.
II. Institutional Views: Growth Concerns May Surpass Inflation as New Gold Driver
CRU Chief Precious Metals Analyst Kirill Kirilenko pointed out in an exclusive interview with Kitco News that the gold market is still stuck in a familiar 'tug-of-war' chain: rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, which in turn push up bond yields, prompting markets to expect tighter monetary policy, thereby suppressing gold prices. However, Kirilenko believes this relationship may not last—if the conflict continues to expand, investors' focus will shift from 'how high will inflation go due to oil prices' to 'how will the global security landscape evolve,' 'they will pay more attention to the stability of the global political and financial system.' This shift will push the market close to the tipping point where safe-haven demand dominates interest rate expectations. Kirilenko also emphasized that the current US debt burden severely limits the upside for interest rates—annual debt service costs have exceeded $1 trillion, higher than the military budget. 'I don't think the Fed will make debt service more expensive.' CRU economists currently expect only one rate hike in December this year, after which they will return to an easing path. Longer term, three scenarios (AI boosts productivity, AI fails to meet expectations, middle scenario) all ultimately point to lower rates, which is structurally positive for gold.
VanEck Portfolio Manager Imaru Casanova said that gold's recent 25% pullback reflects a shift in macro conditions, but persistent inflation, geopolitical risks, and lower real rates should support gold prices. She noted that gold mining stocks offer attractive cash flows, margins, and valuations in the current environment. Although gold prices have fallen from a high of $5,600 at the end of January to a low of $3,943 at the end of June, the average trading price for gold so far in 2026 is about $4,700/oz, while the industry's All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) is expected to average below $2,000/oz. Even at a gold price of $4,000, margins remain very strong. Casanova emphasized that an environment of 'prolonged Fed inaction' could lead to falling or even negative real rates over time, which historically has been one of the most favorable backdrops for gold. She also noted that gold mining stocks have historically outperformed gold itself in rising gold price environments, and current sector valuations are relatively low by historical standards.
Forbes Media Chairman and Editor-in-Chief Steve Forbes offered a provocative view in an interview with Kitco News: the market is experiencing a strengthening of the US dollar, not a weakening of gold. 'Gold has preserved its real value better than anything else in the world, and has done so for thousands of years,' Forbes wrote. 'When gold prices change, it's the value of the currency that is changing. Gold is constant.' He warned against premature celebration of the dollar's recent rebound—since 2022, gold in dollar terms was around $1,800, rose to $2,300 two years ago, $3,300 a year ago, and currently gold is still more than 20% higher than last summer. Forbes believes the Iran war still has the potential to push energy prices higher, which could put pressure on the Fed to raise rates, and the possibility of an international currency crisis (possibly centered on the yen or pound) should not be ignored. 'Gold is not an investment; it is insurance against financial distress.'
Former BlackRock portfolio manager and Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies Ed Dowd offered a seemingly contradictory judgment: he is 'cautious' on gold at current levels, but expects gold to reach $10,000 by the end of this decade. Dowd believes the credit default cycle has begun, and Wall Street is still celebrating the AI boom that is about to hit a credit wall. His core logical chain is: a global credit crisis will force the Fed and governments into massive reflation ('QE larger than the COVID era'), which will lay the foundation for gold to move towards $10,000. In the near term, he warns gold could fall further in risk sell-offs, but any safe-haven-driven declines are buying opportunities. Dowd also noted that the housing market is 'basically frozen'—new home inventory supply is about 10.3 months, price discounts are record-breaking, and credit default swaps for companies like Oracle are 'exploding,' all early signals of credit stress building.
III. Expert Views: Deep Reflections on the Gold Standard and Monetary System
On July 22, a number of heavyweight market participants coincidentally touched upon the deep theme of gold's role in the monetary system, attracting widespread market attention.
Independent Institute Constitutional Scholar William J. Watkins, Jr. presented a sharp argument in an interview with Kitco News: the US dollar is now almost entirely backed by government force. With US national debt approaching $40 trillion and interest payments exceeding the defense budget, Watkins believes the US has deviated greatly from the 'hard currency' system designed by the Founding Fathers. He noted that the US Constitution grants Congress the power to coin money and prohibits states from making anything other than gold and silver legal tender—'The Founding Fathers understood that real money is hard currency, gold and silver.' However, from the Civil War greenbacks to the 1933 gold confiscation and repricing, to the 1971 closing of the gold window, this design has gradually unraveled. 'Paper money is really only tied to the coercive power of the federal government,' Watkins said. 'It's a trick we continue to play with a smile, but it is ultimately just a trick. There is no real value behind it.' When the last gold standard link was severed in 1971, gold was at $35/oz, and on Wednesday (July 22), gold prices exceeded $4,100. Watkins believes foreign holdings of about $9.5 trillion in US Treasuries are a potential financial vulnerability, and advocates that sound money is a natural constraint on foreign wars—when the government cannot arbitrarily print money, 'to pay for war, you must tax the people.'
Steve Forbes also touched on this theme in his interview. Since May 2024, he has written that 'the world is stumbling towards a gold-based monetary system,' even though the gold standard is 'almost universally despised' in economics. Forbes noted that the US operated under the gold standard for 180 years, 'there was never inflation when the dollar was tied to gold,' and after leaving the gold standard, the average growth rate fell by about 33%. He believes that record central bank gold purchases, the rise of cryptocurrencies, and the unsustainable growth of public and private debt are all precursors to a potential fundamental transformation of the monetary system.
Overall, although these views are not mainstream forecasts from major institutions, they reflect that market participants, after gold's sharp pullback from highs, are re-examining gold's monetary attributes from a longer-term perspective—a trend that echoes the positioning of 'gold as a strategic monetary asset' emphasized by institutions such as CRU and VanEck.
IV. HKEX GDU: Active Trading on July 21, Two Front-Month Contracts Lead Gains
The Hong Kong Exchanges US Dollar Gold Futures (GDU, 1 kg 9999 fine gold, USD denominated) recorded total volume of 6,450 lots on July 21 (Tuesday), with open interest of 1,378 lots, a net increase of 15 lots from the previous day. The AUG-26 contract settlement price was $130.88/gram (approx $4,071/oz), up $1.30 (+1.00%) on the day; the DEC-26 contract settlement price was $132.73/gram (approx $4,129/oz), up $1.33 (+1.01%) on the day. Both front-month contracts recorded steady gains. The AUG-26 contract had daytime trading volume of 2,636 lots, and the DEC-26 contract had daytime trading volume of 2,948 lots, with trading remaining active.
In calendar spreads, the AUG-26/DEC-26 spread trade recorded 2,571 lots, with the spread maintained in the $1.81-$1.82/gram range, reflecting the market's continued need to manage medium-term position structures. The near-far month spread structure remained stable, with no significant distortions.
Hong Kong Exchanges has appointed multiple designated market makers to jointly maintain the depth and stability of the gold futures market. With the continued reserve accumulation by the People's Bank of China and the gradual rise of Asia's gold pricing power, the integration of the HKEX GDU contract into the global precious metals trading network is deepening.
V. Quick Views from Institutions
| Institution/Person | Core View | Tendency |
|---|---|---|
| CRU Kirilenko | Growth concerns may surpass inflation as new gold driver; debt burden limits rate hike space, expects only one hike in December then return to easing | 🟢 Medium-long term bullish |
| VanEck Casanova | Gold's long-term investment logic is solid; miners still have strong profits and low valuations even at $4,000 gold; Fed inaction may push down real rates | 🟢 Bullish miners/gold |
| Steve Forbes | Gold price decline reflects dollar strengthening, not gold weakening; gold is 'insurance' not investment; Iran war and debt issues are long-term positives | 🟢 Long-term bullish |
| Ed Dowd | Currently cautious on gold, but expects gold to reach $10,000 after credit crisis; credit default cycle has begun, housing market frozen | 🟡 Short-term cautious / 🟢 Long-term strongly bullish |
| William Watkins | Dollar backed only by government force, far from Founding Fathers' hard currency system; $40 trillion debt threatens monetary stability | 🟢 Positive for gold's long-term narrative |
| Kitco PM Report (Technical) | Bulls regain short-term technical advantage, break triangle consolidation and moving average resistance; $4,167 is near-term resistance, $4,200 next target | 🟡 Short-term bullish |
| Strait of Hormuz Situation | Open but highly tense navigation status, continued US-Iran military and diplomatic pressure; Brent crude closes at highest since June 8 | 🔴 Geopolitical risk premium persists |
VI. Focus for Today and Next Week
- July 24 (Friday): US July Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI prelim—market will look for